Gustav putting Katrina’s lesson to the test

Well, its looking more and more like Gustav is going to be the real deal. Right now, forecasters are saying Gustav will be a Category 3 hurricane when it makes landfall… in Louisiana.

Gustav has already killed 51 people in Haiti and 8 in the Dominican Republic, and I believe that it has only briefly achieved hurricane status. Right now it’s only a tropical storm but is expected to strengthen considerably once it makes it out into the gulf.

Gustav's current 5-day forecast

Katrina's path and intensity levels

New Orleans Elevation Map

The question in my mind is whether people will behave differently with Gustav. We all know how terrible Hurricane Katrina was, but what many people don’t know or have forgotten is how quickly and unexpectedly Katrina exploded from a Category 3 hurricane to a Category 5.

Taking this into consideration, I would think that anyone who is threatened by a Category 3 hurricane (winds between 111-130 mph) should assume that they are going to be hit by a Category 5 (winds greater than 156 mph)… especially if much of your city is below sea level.

If you take a look at the elevation map for New Orleans, you’ll see that there’s quite a bit of land that measures 4 meters below sea level. That’s just over 13 feet (the ceilings in the first level of your home is probably around 8 to 10 feet off the ground)! Honestly, it blows my mind that anyone lives there.

So, do you guys think we’ll see more people leaving before the storm hits, or will they be stubborn and simply hope things won’t be as bad as they were almost exactly 3 years ago?

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